El Niño expected to smash heat records in 2024
According to new research published in the journal Scientific Reports, there is a 90% chance that global average surface temperatures will reach a record high for the year leading up to June 2024. This is due to the weather pattern known as El Niño, which is part of a natural, cyclical phenomenon but has been intensified by climate change.
El Niño can have cascading effects, such as raising the risk of drought and wildfires. It is important to give people a heads up about these potential impacts so they can prepare and take necessary precautions.
We have seen that this type of warming can cause a lot of troubles in the world, so we want to give people a heads up, says Deliang Chen, one of the authors of the research and a professor at the University of Gothenburg.
The Science Behind El Niño
El Niño is part of a weather pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases. During a neutral phase, trade winds over the Pacific Ocean push warm waters near South America west towards Asia, allowing cooler water to rise from the deep towards the surface. However, during an El Niño phase, these trade winds weaken and create an area in the Pacific that is much warmer than usual. This leads to the release of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, causing unusual weather patterns.
These effects can vary from region to region, but in general, El Niño can lead to weird and extreme weather conditions. Before the current El Niño developed in 2023, forecasters were already predicting its potential impacts. The World Meteorological Organization stated that along with climate change, this El Niño could push global temperatures into uncharted territory.
As expected, 2023 ended up being the hottest year since record-keeping began in 1850. To predict what’s in store for 2024, researchers modeled two possible scenarios: one under a moderate El Niño and another under a strong El Niño.
Predictions for 2024
The research showed that with a moderate El Niño, regions such as the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines can expect to be hit hardest by heat waves and drought. In the Bay of Bengal, this could lead to marine heatwaves that can bleach and kill coral reefs that nearby communities rely on for their livelihoods.
However, under a strong El Niño scenario, even more regions are at risk of record-breaking temperatures. These include the Caribbean Sea, South China Sea, Amazon rainforest, and Alaska. The Caribbean Sea and South China Sea could face year-round marine heatwaves while severe drought could fuel wildfires in the Amazon. Additionally, high temperatures could accelerate glacier melting and permafrost loss in Alaska.
It is important to stay informed about these potential impacts of El Niño so we can take necessary precautions and mitigate its effects as much as possible. We must also continue to address climate change to prevent future intensification of this natural phenomenon.
